Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
